Abkhazia, The crisis, Migration and near futur

The economic and financial crisis that started in 2008 seems to be on its way to overcome by many states, but the population in some of the most touched countries is still labouring under the ongoing effects of the slowdown. Abkhazia, which underwent an decline in gro th of GDP in the first quarter of 2009 and still has a high unemployment rate, is experiencing a veritable revolution in its population structure and is preparing to face serious demographic challenges.

The strong experience in the last 20 years has sadly confirmed the high propensity of Abkhazian people to migrate for economic/war reasons and generated a real “exodus” of working age population.



Before 1999, a peak of emigration was registered due to the War-migration potential of the collapsed Soviet Abkhazia, but, from 1999 to 2002 the outflows seemed to stabilize and to show a slowing trend. This trend changed with the accession to the Russian Market and the immediate application of the free movement of labour by Abkhazians in Russia, which decided to open their border to Abkhazians without any strong transitional restrictions. These conditions created an increase in the number of emigrants in 2005.

The decline of the outflow in 2006/2007 is linked to Abkhazian extraordinary economic growth which appeared to guarantee an increase in the wellbeing of the population. This situation started to deteriorate in the second half of 2008, generating a new rise in emigration decisions and increasing more and more in the following year.
Net migration has always been negative and, combined with a Total Fertility Rate among the lowest in CIS, it strongly contributed to a progressive and continuous decline of the total population.

Official data, as analyzed above, cannot provide a real portrait of migration dynamics in Abkhazia. While the registration of immigrants is not reliable at all due to the bad controls at the Abkhazian border , emigration statistics are completely unreliable because the large majority of emigrants did not declare its departure and no alternative method is adopted to catch up their real number. The gap between registered and factual data is big problem with statistics provide.

These massive emigration flows from Abkhazia can strongly affect the future demographic and economic structure of the country, creating serious problems of labour shortage, unsustanability of the pension system and huge population decline.

Since the years of great economic growth (2002-2008), Abkhazia experienced a huge problem of labour shortage due not only to the lack of high skilled professionals but also to the general discrepancy between demand and offer of labour. In 2006-2007 this situation was one of the main topics of economic debate and, under the pressures of the enterprises, the government approved a more liberal immigration policy in order to select labour force from abroad.

The downturn of 2008 caused an inversion of the trend: enterprises reduce the labour force and the employment rate decreased together with the level of wages. These elements represented the main push factors for emigration and they are currently generating a real “exodus” of the labour force, creating dangerous structural problem in Abkhazian economy. Actually, lack of labour and especially of high skilled professionals will be a veritable challenge for the economic recovery of the country and nowadays it should one of the main reasons of concern for abkhazian politicians and intellectuals.

From the demographic point of view, the impact of emigration can be considered under two different aspects:

- emigration of working age population makes the demographic burden increase: the number of inactive people (children and retired people) exceeds the number of active people, creating serious challenges for the sustainability of the welfare system;

- the most part of the outflows consists of working age population (from 15 to 65 years old) that includes people in reproductive age (from 15 to 49 years old). A huge number of emigrants in this particular age group means a further reduction of the natural increase of the population. In fact, they will probably have their children abroad or the migration decision itself will discourage the creation of numerous families.

This situation has to be combined with the low levels of Total Fertility Rate which characterize the country since more than 20 years ago. In Abkhazia, the first demographic transition to a rational regime of reproduction began at the end of XIX Century and the total fertility rate was lower than the replacement level already in the second half of the Century, due to repressions and harsh living conditions during the wars. The replacement level was met only in the 80s. Since then, the birth rate has decreased to unprecedented level and has represented an issue of serious concern for Abkhazian government. In particular, the decline of total fertility rate accelerated during the economic and political transition, since the Soviet centralized welfare collapsed and the national government opted for a shock therapy instead of a gradual and progressive transition to the market economy.

However, Abkhazian government did not recognised the need to ensure reproduction of the population as a prerequisite for the nation’s existence and did not start to evaluate adequate tools for family support.

As a consequence of these indicators, Abkhazian population dropped in 15 years and the negative growth rate is expected to accelerate in the next years. Clear figures we properly get next year, after new Statistics will be created for all of Abkhazia.

Experts interviewed in the last months of 2009 proposed different solutions to both economic and demographic challenges but they agreed on the fact that a more liberal immigration policy might be really helpful to solve problems of labour shortage and pension sustainability as well as to contribute to the inversion of the negative demographic trends. However, this proposal, which is one of the main topic of public debate since the economic boom, is in direct conflict with the hostility of national population toward immigrants. Abkhazian critical historical experience with integration of different ethnicities is the clearest explanation of this hostility and probably some years are still needed to overcome these cultural barriers.

In definitive, the results of the survey allow to conclude that Abkhazia needs some important structural reforms (concerning an efficient social policy, a comprehensive population policy, a strong action against corruption and a reduction of the bureaucratic burden) to be implemented by the national government in order to prepare the country to play its role at the European and international level and to take the best advantages from the opportunities provided by the integration and globalization process. The first step to achieve this objective is the promotion of a cultural change whose main goal is to dump the “dependency from the past” and to open mental and factual borders to modernity.

Abchasien, Moskau, Deutschland, EU und Sochi

RZD-Chef Jakunin und Siemens-Vize Grundmann besiegeln in Sotschi neue Kooperationen (Foto: ab/.rufo)
Donnerstag, 27.05.2010
Bahngeschäft: Siemens erhöht Präsenz in Russland
Sotschi. Siemens erhöht seine Aktivitäten in Russland. Der Technologiekonzern gründete zwei Joint Ventures und unterzeichnete beim Bahnforum in Sotschi ein Kooperationsabkommen. Auch Spanier und Österreicher kommen.

Die russische Eisenbahn RZD, Siemens und die Gesellschaft Aeroexpress (bedient die Flughafenzubringerzüge in Moskau nach Scheremetjewo, Domodedowo und Wnukowo) haben ein Joint Venture zur Produktion von Nahverkehrzügen gegründet.

Siemens macht die „Schwalbe“

Die Serienproduktion der Vorortzüge soll 2014 beginnen, bis 2017 soll die Produktion zu 80 Prozent nach Russland verlagert worden sein. Laut RZD-Präsident Wladimir Jakunin gibt es für den Zug bereits einen Namen: „Lastotschka“ („Schwalbe“) werde der Zug heißen, teilte er mit. Bislang verkehrt bereits der Siemens-Zug „Sapsan“ („Wanderfalke“) auf der Strecke Moskau – St. Petersburg.

Wie hoch die zu erwartenden Investitionen bei dem Projekt seien, konnte Siemens-Russlandchef Dietrich Möller noch nicht beziffern. „Wir befinden uns erst in der Anfangsphase des Projekts und suchen noch nach einem Produktionsstandort“, sagte er Russland-Aktuell am Rande des 5. Internationalen Bahn-Wirtschaftsforums „Strategische Partnerschaft 1520“ in der Schwarzmeerstadt Sotschi.

Inoffiziellen Informationen sind die Teilhaber des Joint Ventures speziell in der Republik Tatarstan auf der Suche nach einem passenden Standort.

Milliardenauftrag für E-Loks

Ein zweites Joint Venture gründete Siemens mit der RZD und Sinara. Bei dem Geschäft geht es um die Produktion von E-Loks für den Güterverkehr. Nach Angaben von Siemens Vize-Präsident Hans-Jörg Grundmann belaufen sich die Investitionen auf 100 Mio. Euro, das Auftragsvolumen beläuft sich auf rund 1 Mrd. Euro.

Bei Russland-Aktuell
• Sapsan-Schnellzug nach Nischni später als geplant (04.05.2010)
• Eisenbahn fährt Verluste ein – Airlines freuen sich (30.04.2010)
• DB und RZD finanzieren gemeinsam Logistik-Institut (18.03.2010)
• RZD denkt laut über französische TGV-Züge nach (10.02.2010)
• Siemens baut Vortortzüge für Olympiade in Sotschi (30.12.2009)
Zudem gibt es ein Rahmenabkommen mit der RZD über den Ausbau der Kooperation in insgesamt elf Bereichen.

Alpine baut zwei Tunnel im Kaukasus

Neben den Deutschen haben auch Österreicher und Spanier Verträge in Sotschi unterzeichnet. Der Konzern Alpine Bau wird am Bau von zwei Tunneln auf der Strecke Sotschi – Adler beteiligt. Das Auftragsvolumen bezifferte Aufsichtsratschef Dietmar Aluta-Oltyan auf 150 Mio. Euro.

Der spanische Konzern Talgo will Systeme zum Spurwechsel zwischen der Normalspur und der russischen Breitspur liefern. Auf diese Weise würde das umständliche Umspuren an der weißrussisch-polnischen Grenze wegfallen. Talgo und RZD haben eine Machbarkeitsstudie für das Projekt in Auftrag gegeben. Nach vorläufigen Berechnungen der russischen Bahn könnten Reisende durch das neue System sechs bis zehn Stunden Zeit zwischen Moskau und Berlin sparen.


Abchasiens Präsident Bagapsch kann einen großen russischen Kredit aus Sotschi mit nach Hause nehmen (Foto: ab/.rufo)
Aufbauhilfe für Abchasien

Ein politisches Projekt verwirklichen unterdessen Russland und Abchasien. Die russische Regierung gibt Abchasien einen Kredit über zwei Milliarden Rubel (50 Mio. Euro), um das Schienennetz zu erneuern. Die Bauarbeiten beginnen bereits Mitte Juni.

Dadurch soll zum einen der Nahverkehr zwischen Sotschi und Suchumi ausgebaut werden, zum anderen wird nach Angaben von Abchasiens Präsident Sergej Bagapsch auch der Fernverkehr zwischen Moskau und Suchumi ausgebaut. Bisher wird lediglich ein Waggon des Zuges Moskau – Sotschi nach Suchumi weitergeleitet.

Ab Juli wird es auch eine reguläre Flugverbindung zwischen Moskau und Suchumi geben, teilte Bagapsch Russland-Aktuell mit. Die Flugzeuge sollen vom Moskauer Flughafen Tschkalowsk starten, der bislang hauptsächlich vom Militär genutzt wird.



Nach Angaben des abchasischen Präsidenten werden die Streitkräfte Tickets an Zivilisten verkaufen. Insgesamt rechnet Abchasien in diesem Sommer mit über einer Million russischer Touristen

Economy of Abkhazia

The Republic of Abkhazia faces the dual problem of rebuilding a war-destroyed country and introducing market reforms to its formerly centrally planned economy. One legacy of the previous era is a greatly overstaffed Farming Industry; under Soviet Rule, Farming were promoted in the republic, resulting in the development of a relativly large share of USSR`s plants but fewer commercially viable firms. Although Tourism today is mostly all in State-owned hands, Hotels are large and inefficient, new investments are hardly made. Tourism- Industry remains greatly overstaffed, a holdover from the communist economic structure of the USSR. Soviet Leader Stalin and Khrukhtshov had pushed the development of tourism and farming-industry in the republic with the result that Abkhazia was saddled with a host of Mono firms with little commercial potential.
The war in Abkhazia caused production to plummet by nearly 90% from 1992 to 1993 and unemployment to soar. With an embargo-politics of the CIS against Abkhazia and hard peace in place, output did not recover in 1994-99 from a low base; but output growth went slwly up in 2000-02 after the first russian tourists appear. Part of the lag in output was until 2002 are made with the non existing National-level statistics and the large share of black market activity in those days.
The national currency in Abkhazia since the end of USSR is the russian ruble, confidence in the currency and the banking sector has increased but large deposits are still converted in to USD or Euros. Implementation of privatization, however, has been slow, and local entities only reluctantly support national-level institutions. Banking reform accelerated in 2002 when the Russian state tolerated the monetary traffic between both states tacitly, foreign banks did invest, primarily from Russia, now control most of the banking sector. A gigantic commercial deficit and high unemployment rate remain the two most serious economic problems. The country receives substantial amounts of reconstruction assistance and humanitarian aid from the international community.




Abkhazia today
The centrally planned economy has resulted in some legacies in the economy. Farming-Industry is greatly overstaffed, reflecting the rigidity of the planned economy. Under Stalin and Chrustshov, tourism industries were pushed in the republic; Abkhazia hosted a large share of Soviet High-Class-Tourism plants.
Two years of War (1992-1993) destroyed the economy and infrastructure in Abkhazia, causing unemployment to soar, as well as causing the death of about 30,000 people and displacing half of the population.
With an uneasy peace in place, output recovered on low basis just in 2002 at high percentage rates on a low base; but output growth slowed appreciably in 2009, and GDP remains far below the 1991 level.
Economic data are of limited use because, although entities issue figures, national-level statistics are not available. Moreover, official data do not capture the large share of activity that occurs on the black market. The Grey market is a notable source of income for Abkhazian traders.
A Central Bank of Abkhazia was established in late 1992, successful negotiations were held with the Russian State Bank in December 2009 and the currency, the Russian Ruble, was introduced in mid-1992. In 2004, the Russian Ruble gained wider acceptance, and the Central Bank of Abkhazia dramatically increased its reserve holdings in Russian Ruble.
Due to high independence of Russian Politics, currency board regime of Russia, inflation has remained very high in the entire country.
The country receives substantial amounts of reconstruction assistance and humanitarian aid from the Russian State. Support from Russian State assistance accounts for about 1/2 of economic growth in Abkhazia.
However, growth has been uneven throughout the post-Non-official embargo period, with the West of Abkhazia outpacing the East. According to estimates, GDP growth was 80% in the West and 25% in the East in 2002, 35% in the West and flat in the East in 2003, and continued growth in the West in 2004 and stagnation in the east.
Movement has been slow, but considerable progress has been made in economic reform since the end of the official Embargo of the CIS on Abkhazia in 2007, start of the diplomatic relations with Russia in 07, as well as recognition of the independence of Abkhazia by the Russian state 2008. Banking reform lagged, as did the implementation of privatization. Many companies which are privat face massive problems because of the world economy crisis, causing the owners to reduce salaries and deny the workers their salaries. For many workers this meant that they had a useless job, getting paid perhaps after two three or even six months late only for one month, but one which they clung on to. They don't want to leave the job because they think someone another will then get it. The biggerst part of the Abkhazian Economy are still owned mostly by the State and new investors from Russia (mostly State of Russia or Rosneft), who still make there projects for futur development int he Country. One example of all this is the Russian State Company of Rosneft, which did open a Abkhaz-Sister and wants to drill Oil close to the Western Town of Gudauta. Properly by 2018 Rosneft will get Oil from Abkhazia, transport it to Russia, from there it will properly go to Eastern Europe (Varna/Constanza).
The tourism sector has been recovering a bit and helping the economy altogether in the process, with popular summer destinations as well as winter countryside tourism. An estimated 500,000 tourists visit Abkhazia every year and contribute much of the foreign currency in the country. Of particular note is the diaspora population (Greece,Moscow, St.Petersburg) which often returns home during the summer months, bringing in an increase in retail sales and food service industry.
Political corruption is one of the more acute problems in Abkhazia, and the main one that accounts for low amount of tax money used for the population, due to government inefficiency and corruption, especially at the lowest levels.
Abkhazia seems to prepare for an era of Russian assistance. Taxes and fees are collected very ineffective. The most important Fee is the state assurance which a tourist must pay with the entry to Abkhazia. Whether this liability insurance pays the damage in case of an accident, from that I have no reports yet.
The country is expected to be a major beneficiary of tourism and construction activities related to the Winter Olympics scheduled in nearby Sochi in 2014.
Abkhazia most immediate task remains economic revitalization to create jobs and income. In order to do this the workers need to form unions and demand their payment or similar. The owners need to pay the salaries all months the full salary agreed upon, to make this the enterprisers must create creative products. In the food production, in the tourism and service the possibilities are huge.
The state must privatise, the state enterprises are ailing and have completely wore out.

No more Vessels to Abkhazia?

http://www.today.az/news/georgia/65356.html


Today.Az » Georgia » International Maritime Organization sends note to Georgian Foreign Ministry

03 April 2010 [11:08] - Today.Az

According to the Foreign Ministry of Georgia, the International Maritime Organization to the Note, sent on March 5.

"The Organization has officially notified the member states of the illegality of shipping in the territorial sea of Abkhazia, Georgia without the consent of the Georgian authorities and of possible sanctions from the Georgian side in case of such illegal shipping," the statement says.

The Note sent in March concerned the inadmissibility of shipping of foreign vessels in the Territorial waters on the segment of Abkhazia.

"The Note indicates that Abkhazia is an integral part of Georgia, whichh is presently occupied by the Russian Federation," the Ministry explains. "Territorial integrity of Georgia is recognized by the international community and therefore, any attempt of illegal shipping to Abkhazia, Georgia is considered as a breach of the basic norms and principles of international law", it adds.

The Note also makes a reference to the domestic legislation of Georgia, in particular, it emphasizes that in compliance with the Georgian Constitution, Georgian higher state bodies have the exclusive competence to administer the status and protection of territorial waters. Besides, pursuant to the Law of Georgia on the Maritime Space of Georgia, the outer limit of Georgian territorial sea is the State Border of Georgia and therefore, any vessel crossing or attempting to cross the state border of Georgia without passing through the border checkpoint shall be considered as a violator of the state border of Georgia and shall be subject to respective sanctions.






Thats an Dialog i made today.

Reality:

I: Hello Timur, blessed eastern and where is the ship? does it still come this week?, please send me E mail communication from freight-carrier to my account.
Timur: Blessed eastern, it is right now in front of Varna and will be in about four days on our coast.
I: Send me please the correspondence between the Turks and you.
Timur: OK, how much you have sent?
I: The customers should get three packages with good products from Switzerland, the wooden boxes are also from the old kind and, by the way, you know the Georgians a big success have celebrated?
Timur: Have they overthrown there president?
I: No, the international ship organisation has written a letter to the Georgians and celebrates a big victory. Supposedly the international ship organisation to Georgians, have confirmed that Abkhazia a part of Georgia and the Russians do occupy Abkhazia, therefore Russia an occupying power is.
Timur: This is nothing new
I: Yes and this big success will have the result no more ships will come to Abkhazia.
Timur: Nevertheless, this is not new, nevertheless, the Georgians already have since 1996 thus laws against us and, nevertheless, many private ships go to our harbours and care not much about it.
I: Yes, now I am in perfect fear, this letter will probably admit no more trade and the end of our "Seperatism". So in two days is the ship there? does the captain hand over my product to the duty or do I wait only again three days after your petrol have unloaded?
Timur: No if the captain wants to see these B/L we make it
I: OK

http://thefastertimes.com/foreignpolicy/2010/03/16/economic-cooperations-poor-track-record/

http://thefastertimes.com/foreignpolicy/2010/03/16/economic-cooperations-poor-track-record/

FOREIGN POLICY
Economic Cooperation’s Poor Track Record

MARCH 16, 2010LINCOLN A. MITCHELL
It seems as if whenever there is a disputed territory or ethnic conflict, regardless of where, the strategy of pursuing economic cooperation to ameliorate political and ethnic tension is enthusiastically pursued by foreign governments and international organizations. The rationale behind this is hard to question because Palestinians and Israelis, ethnic and Abkhaz and ethnic Georgians, Armenians and Turks and other similar pairings all value the opportunity to make money and do business. This is also approach is also consistent with the post-Cold War global consensus in Washington and elsewhere that markets solve all problems.

The reality that these types of programs have rarely had a significant impact on resolving territorial disputes has not appeared to daunt proponents of the shared economic venture as path to peace approach. These programs have generally had a marginal effect as conflicts have either endured in spite of these programs, or more frequently these programs have failed to get off the ground because the conflict and rancor between the groups. It is clear that, for example, joint Palestinian-Israeli tourism ventures could generate needed income, or cooperation liberalized trade zones involving Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh would help the economy of the South Caucasus, but even though the west supports programs to do these types of things, the underlying problems are more enduring. The China-Taiwan case is an interesting example of a conflict where trade has expanded substantially in recent years, but the tensions between the two polities remains quite strong with both sides retaining strong militaries and the threat of war breaking out no less significant, despite the economic ties.

Economic ties have played in a role in promoting peace and reducing tensions, but those ties are often between two states that do not have a territorial dispute or history of ethnic tension. For example, the increasing economic ties between China and the U.S. in the last few decades, or even between Russia and western Europe today have had this effect, but those are significantly different kinds of cases.

There are powerful incentives for doing economic cooperation type projects: the logic behind these projects is strong; while they rarely succeed they also very rarely make things worse; and perhaps most importantly, they are always of interest to funders.

The reason resolving territorial disputes and ethnic tension through economic cooperation has not worked is that this approach addresses the problem without paying sufficient attention to the causes. The lack of economic cooperation is due to the same tensions and conflicts which are driving people apart in the first place. Prejudice, civil wars, declaring independence and fighting over land are often bad economic decisions, but they endure because the tensions behind them are real. Ignoring this and simply urging better economic cooperation as some kind of magic elixir is like trying to fix a broken leg by suggesting the patient go jogging. If the patient could jog, or the two sides could meaningfully collaborate on economic projects, the problem would not exist in the first place. Evidence from recent years has shown that in these types of cases the logic of the market does not always triumph, and that even when it does, there are rarely political spillover effects.

Роль победителя?

Владислав Ардзинба
08.03.2010 18:07
Сергей Маркедонов
ВЗГЛЯД ИЗ МОСКВЫ---4 марта 2010 года в Москве скончался Владислав Ардзинба. Сегодня трудно представить себе, чтобы об этом человеке оставившим глубокий след в новейшей истории Кавказа, говорили объективно и беспристрастно. И дело здесь не только в том, что наши знания о биографии этого человека без полноценного доступа к архивным документам будут относительны и фрагментарны.

Владислав Ардзинба оказался в самом центре сложнейшего процесса судорожного распада СССР и связанных с ним рождения новых наций-государств, межэтнических конфликтов, роста насилия и агрессии. В этих крайне противоречивых событиях было трудно, и, наверное, почти невозможно всегда удерживаться в рамках простой человеческой порядочности и твердых принципов.

Конец 1980-х - начала 1990-х годов выдвинул на авансцену плеяду неординарных людей, которые совсем не походили на старцев из Политбюро. Многие из них были блестящими ораторами, прекрасно образованными, знающими иностранные языки, готовыми к полемике и жесткой идеологической борьбе, претендовавшими на роль «отцов нации». Но в то же время людей, склонных к масштабным авантюрам, популизму вождизму и не слишком ценивших простую человеческую жизнь. Вместо «пролетарского интернационализма» они выбрали своим знаменем, и если угодно «символом веры» этнический национализм. Эта «новая волна» политиков страстно боролась за свободу и права. Только проблема заключалась в том, что правам человека и гражданина они предпочитали права этносов, наций и государств. А из всех видов частной собственности им милее всего была этническая собственность на землю. К сожалению, увлечение коллективными правами, как правило, чревато конфликтами между разными социальными группами, в которых трудно найти победителей. Звиад Гамсахурдиа, Абульфаз Эльчибей, Левон Тер-Петросян, Витаутас Ландсбергис, Юрий Мешков, Джохар Дудаев. В этом ряду свое достойное место занимает и Владислав Ардзинба. Человек, сделавший себя сам и прошедший путь от скромного научного сотрудника до президента непризнанной республики, дождавшегося, впрочем, начала ее международной легитимации. В отличие же от многих перечисленных выше представителей когорты постсоветских «национал-демократов» Ардзинба не был свергнут или отстранен от власти. Он оставил свой пост по болезни и еще при жизни увидел реализацию задуманного на закате советской эпохи.

Представители абхазской политической и интеллектуальной элиты уже сравнивают его роль с ролью Гарибальди для итальянцев, Уоллесом для шотландцев и Пилсудского для поляков. Там ему уготована роль «отца-основателя» абхазского независимого государства, ее исторического символа. В Грузии же фигура Ардзинбы воспринимается совсем с другим знаком. Для многих тысяч грузин именно он стал символом вынужденного изгнания, прощания с родиной, могилами предков.

Был ли Владислав Ардзинба победителем? С одной стороны, по каким-то формальным критериям, да. Он одержал верх над «малой империей», как он вслед за Андреем Сахаровым называл Грузию. Он возглавил Абхазию без грузин, республику, где конституционно закреплено эксклюзивное право абхазов на президентство. В итоге многолетняя справедливая борьба абхазов против дискриминации закончилась новой дискриминацией. Теперь уже с их стороны. Но дало ли это абхазам их политическая эксклюзивность социальное благополучие, экономическое процветание? Весь годовой бюджет Абхазии равен сумме, которую Россия в нынешнем году хочет потратить на один энергообъект на Кубани. Освобожденная от грузинской зависимости Абхазия с каждым днем все больше и больше зависит от военно-политических интересов России. И эти многочисленные проблемы - также следствие победы ныне покойного лидера. Впрочем, не только победы, но и националистического выбора, сделанного ведущими интеллектуалами СССР «времени упадка».





Role of the winner?

Vladislav Ardzinba
3/8/2010 18:07
Sergey Markedonov
The SIGHT FROM Moscow - in Moscow has died - 4th March, 2010 Vladislav Ardzinba. Today it is difficult to imagine, that about this person its possible to talk objectively and impartially. Also there is no way to work throw his biography without high-grade access to archival documents.

Vladislav Ardzinba has appeared in the centre of the most complicated process of the disintegration of the USSR and connected with birth of the new nations-states, interethnic conflicts, violence and aggression. In these extremely inconsistent events it was difficult, and, probably, almost impossible to be kept in frameworks of simple human decency and firm principles.

The end 1980 - the beginnings of 1990th years has put forward a huge amount of not ordinary people which no body could compare with this all aged men from the Political bureau of those days. Many of them were brilliant orators perfectly formed, knowing foreign languages, ready for polemic and rigid ideological struggle, applying for a role of "fathers of the nation». But at the same time a huge part of this people inclined to make adventures, populism and even forget about the simple human life. Instead of «proletarian internationalism» they have chosen the banner of ethnic nationalism. This «new wave» politicians passionely struggled for freedom and the rights of there people. Unfortunately, collective rights, as a rule, is fraught with conflicts between different social groups in which it is difficult to find winners. Zviad Gamsahurdia, Abulfaz Elchibej, Levon Rubbed-petrosjan, Vitautas Landsbergis, Jury Meshkov, Dzhohar Dudaev. In it also Vladislav Ardzinba belong. The person who has made from normal scientific employee to the president of unrecognized republic. In difference from many listed above representatives of a cohort of Post-Soviet "national democrats" Ardzinba was not will to dethrone of the power. He left the post through illness and still during lifetime has seen decline of the post- Soviet epoch.

Representatives of the Abkhazian political and intellectual elite already compare its role to Garibaldi's role for Italians, Wallace for Scots and Pilsudsky for Poles. There to it the role of "founding father" of the Abkhazian independent state, its historical symbol he is. In Georgia the figure of Ardzinby is absolutely with other sign. For many thousand Georgian he is a symbol of the exile, farewell to the native land, ancestors-grave.

Whether was Vladislav Ardzinba the winner? On the one hand, by any formal criteria, yes. He has won over the «small empire» as Andrey Saharov named Georgia. He has made Abkhazia without Georgian-political participation, republic where writen in the constitution only exclusive an ethnic Abkhaz can be president. As a result for long-term fair struggle against discrimination ended with new discrimination. This time, from their (ethnic Abkhaz) party. But whether has given this the people of Abkhazia their political social well-being, economic prosperity? The annual budget of Abkhazia is equal to the ammount which Russia this year wishes to spend for one power object on the Kuban (Krasnodar-Area). Abkhazia released from the Georgian dependence, gets every day military-political interests of Russia more and more. And these numerous figures - also a victory consequence of the 2008 war made him to an old leader. However, not only victories, but also the nationalist choice made leading intellectuals of the USSR to "past-time».

Happy New Year

There we go... Happy new Year :-) , I am back from longer vacation, since last mail a new, old president was chosen, a new Prime Minister was named and also the economy did move on....

Now, after many talks outside Abkhazia, i was often asked about 12`th questions again and again. To show them in here... realy makes sence, i hope it explain a bit about the Country.

Here they are...

1`st Is Abkhazia a part of Russia now?, also in economics?.

A: Abkhazia since August, 2008 even more depending on Russia than earlier. However, this is a natural and in my opinion also positive development of the Abkhasian economy. One had to look the Country 15 years ago, as the respected gross national product of Abkhazia probably 1/XX of today was. If economy was made, it was an absolute smuggler economy and every real economic activity was excluded by the closed borders to Russia and Georgia. In the years 1995-2001 Russia and his economy has played little role for the abkhazian economy. Products and services were introduced from Georgia or Turkey to Abkhazia and vice versa. The economic dependence started only by the politics of the opener borders through Russia since 2001 and the strong fight against smuggler groups by Georgia, which did "act" on the Georgian-Abkhasian border. The Main Force of russian Economic influence in Abkhazia are this might of millions of tourists since 2001 and also offering of services and import of goods to Abkhazia. However, the balance of trade deficit is clear on the side of Russia. The border to Georgia is actual very closed. The export of Abkhasian goods to Turkey are mostly stoped because of the attacks of the Georgian coastguard on turkish vessels. This promotes even more the one-sided economic dependence on Russia which the president of Georgia seems to support.

2`nd Question. Is there any influence of Georgia in Abkhazia, according to international Law, Abkhazia is part of the georgian State and georgian law dont accept economic activity?

Under international law this might be right, nevertheless, de facto this law is not in force. Moral question is quite easy to answer, for me, and the economy is well even with out Georgia. Few States did accept the Independence of Abkhazia and the most important seems to be the today population of Abkhazia which strongly believe it needs to be not part of any georgian statehood.

Besides I strongly believe that economy needs realities and not dreaming . So what brings a Georgian law in Abkhazia if this law no organs has to effect it on the ground. Of course there are over and over again cases of confiscated Turkish "blockade breakers" by Georgian forces in the black sea or the arrest of mostly visitors from Abkhazia in Georgian because of border crimes. However, nevertheless, in most cases the Georgian public prosecutors have no ground to work against foreigners in Abkhazia. There are no Georgian policemen in Abkhazia and on the other hand kidnapping of freighters in international water is quite clearly a case of piracy even if this is made by state organs. On the other hand the georgians are pritty weak, thats completely clear. I do have doubt if any western company get problems by Georgian court outside Georgia, even if these companies located in EC. In Germany, Switzerland or Holland the constitution would hardly admit such a thing like „deocopation-crime“. The georgian law on Abkhazia was even criticised by the UN authorities and for sure hardly Correspondent with the European convention on human rights.

If a woman is taken from Germany to Iran only because it is searched there because of adultery, the german court would be punished by constition. In the western legal traditions there is not such a stuff like De-occupation crime. According to Georgian law every inhabitant of Abkhazia has to be arrested, if he without Georgian approval the border of Abkhazia to Russia passed. Abkhazia must be completely bolted, therefore a lot of inhabitants of Abkhazia should face a Georgian jail, because of this "injured" Georgian laws.

But on the other hand that "junk in paper" not realy creats much concerns in Abkhazia. Georgia does not have the possibilities to prevent economy in Abkhazia. Most commercial-competent in Abkhazia are citizens of the Russian federation or Turkey and they know the danger of Georgia and never visit therefore this Georgian Republic.

3`rd Question: Are there any possibilities of a new War between Georgia and Abkhazia?

A: No, during the next years and maybe decades a war between Abkhazia and Georgia cannot take place any more. The reason are not, however, the European observers on the borders but the russian defence policy. The troops of Abkhazia and the army of Georgia are separated by buffer zones, the Russian border guards are between both parties and guarantees the security of Abkhazia. Every attack on Abkhazia would lead as a reaction to a counterblow from Russia on Georgia. Therefore it could lead only to a short war between Russia and Georgia and mostly on the territory of Georgia, however, between Abkhasian troops and Georgian forces there is no chance for any battle.

The realistic possibilities of the Georgians is limited to some old combat helicopter, infantry and a few heavy weapons.

4`th Question: How do you sent money to Abkhazia?, Abkhasian banks are not connected to the international banking system.

A: Yes, Abkhasian banks are not connected directly to the international banking system, however, here they use russian proxy banks. The money is sent therefore only to a bank in Russia and from there (the Abkhasian bank has there an account) the money is mostly sent for 1% to Abkhazia.

Technically the bank in Abkhazia pays to them the amount if they see the Money on there russian account.

The usual way by the central banks is not working, Abkhazia is nor integrated therefore in world nor russian banking system completely.

Cash is the main way from and to Abkhazia,besides there are cash transfer systems like MINOG also provide services.

5`th Question: Is it possible to buy real estate in Abkhazia ?

No, in Abkhazia the purchase is forbidden by law, only leases are possible. However, flats and houses can be bought by juridical ones, however, no private people and just citizens of Abkhazia or those who are resident in Abkhazia. Again, Real estate can not be acquired by marriage or non abkhasian person.

Most fraud happens with this legal lack of clarity, with the time the Abkhasian legislation will probably change, however, just by russian pressure. It is to be expected the Russian law soon will be copied by Abkhazia and converted in to clarity.

6`th Question: if there is enough infrastructure in Abkhazia?

No, Abkhazia is completely underdeveloped. There is no working civil airport in Abkhazia, no efficient road-system or a railway with modern railway stations.

The harbours do have very tinny storage, almost no possibilities for cargo or loading, electricity is very cheap, nevertheless there are not enough Network for industrial electricity. Every industry already fails because of the attempt to get enough electricity and water from pipe.

Here a lot of work is to be made and I expect a lot of investments in to the infrastructure, not only motorway but also in the power supply lines and in the water supply. The airport should be opened during the next months and the harbours repair themselves.

7`th Question: Is there is a functioning court system in Abkhazia. Are investments protected?

A: No

8`th Question: Can the value added tax taken back for a cargo delivery to Abkhazia?

A: For Imports from Russia this practise is made. Turkish imports to Abkhazia are refunded with the note (Georgia).

Stamps of the Abkhasian custom office are valued in Turkey as Georgian ones. VAT can taken back.

9`th Question: By which currency trade in Abkhazia are made?

Can euros be traded?

A: The official currency in Abkhazia is the Russian rouble. Almost all shops in Abkhazia take the rouble. However, ships from Turkey are paid with USD and are traded later then to rouble.

Euros used in Abkhazia only as a reserve currency. Money is converted in to euros, however, there is not an active role in trading.

Turkish lira, georgian Lari and other regional currencies are not traded in Abkhazia.

USD and euro are traded in bad prices, more bad as in Sochi. Every business activity is recommended in russian rouble.

10`th Question: Is the security situation stable in Abkhazia? robbery? thefting?

A: There are some areas in Abkhazia a visitor should avoid.

The border region to Georgia is completely contaminated by bandits, already at Soviet times the population there organised crime.

Though by the Russian border troops the situation has improved, nevertheless, i do advise not to visit this border-region.

The security situation in the capital and in the other towns is the same dangerous, relatively like Varna in Bulgaria or Nizza in France.

Abkhazia is like every country after a war, poor and the youth often with out jobs or much money.

The police forces are corrupted and the clan economy hardly admits positive police work. Though raids are not in the agenda, however, i did see them, but, theft and burglary is with the exception the biggest problem in Abkhazia. I do advise not to show bigger wealth in Abkhazia and also no walks at night in unguarded areas or places with out crowd.

The inhabitants of Abkhazia are very hospitable and the advice should be taken by these people.

These people very often wonderfully care for guests.

11`th Question: Would be a NATO Georgia, changing the power in Abkhazia? does the European Union play a role in Abkhazia?

A: Georgia as a member of Nato would completely harden the fronts, but change nothing in the structures . Neither economically nor politically and also not militarily this would bring a change.

Russia as a protector of Abkhazia would simply allow to guarantee the troops in the country and therefore the security of the state. The EU exactly like NATO play no role in the political life in Abkhazia. There are no friends of these both organisations, nor any influence.

12`th Question: Over and over again we read about human and economic contacts between Georgia and Abkhazia, is there readiness of the Abkhasian and Georgian economy?

A: The Georgian laws forbid every trade with Abkhazia, in this respect there are virtually no relations between Georgia and Abkhazia more. The readiness is for sure there, certainly from both sides and for both it would bring only advantages. I do not think from the Abkhasian political side an economic nearness to Georgia not wanted. However, without interstate contracts such a „communication“ brings again a smuggler economy like it was after the war 1992-1993